Chapter 117 The Second Assignment
Luo Junning has already thought about the topic of his temporary homework for this trip to the United States, which is the prediction and assessment of the second housing crisis in the United States.
The secondary housing crisis, the full name of the subprime housing credit crisis, refers to the target that has been clearly reflected in the name, that is, the economic bubble and crisis caused by the unbalanced real estate development in the United States. Of course, the unbalanced real estate development is only the fuse That's all, the deepest reason is the policy orientation of the US government and the basic needs of the American people.
All this had to start five years ago when the US federal funds rate was lowered by 50 basis points, and the Fed's monetary policy began a cycle from raising interest rates to reducing interest rates. The fund interest rate was reduced to 1%, the lowest level in the past 46 years, and such a loose monetary environment was also reflected in the real estate market. Mortgage interest rates fell over the same period, and the 30-year fixed mortgage loan interest rate dropped from 8.1% at the end of 2000 to 5.8% in 2003, the one-year adjustable rate mortgage loan rate dropped from 7.0% at the end of 2001 to 3.8% in 2003, and this is also an important reason for the continued prosperity of US real estate.
However, from 2004, which was also the first year when Luo Junning was a high school exchange student in South Korea, the Federal Reserve’s low interest rate policy began to reverse. By June 2005, after Luo Junning passed the college entrance examination, the United States had raised interest rates 13 times in a row. As of 2006, the federal funds rate has been raised from 1% to 4.73%. With the firm implementation of such a policy, the cost of housing borrowing has also increased, and it has begun to play a role in stimulating demand and cooling the market, leading to a decline in housing prices. And a massive increase in the risk of mortgage defaults.
In the United States, credit disputes due to the inability to pay high housing prices have also begun to increase. What makes Luo Junning even more funny is that some financial institutions deliberately package high-risk mortgage loans into securities Isn't it a typical scam to sell these questionable mortgage-backed securities to investors?
"The opacity of the rating market and conflicts of interest among rating agencies are the main reasons why these serious and high-risk assets have successfully entered the investment market. It seems that the United States is too free, so much so that there are so many problems." Luo Junning fingered lightly Knocking on the desktop, he preconstructed possible future scenarios and economic models in his mind, but this is obviously not information work that can be completed in a short period of time by a human brain with a utilization rate of only a single digit percentage, so he suppressed these in his heart , Stretched his waist, "Forget it, let's take it slowly, anyway, this is a matter of the United States, and it is just a topic for me. I want to come to the so-called free federation of the United States, and the existence of national policies determined by capital , should have discovered the bad signs and started to deal with them, so there shouldn’t be a chain of economic crises, right?”
Out of trust in the US economy, Luo Junning did not take this topic too seriously, but treated it as a normal job.
In the evening, Luo Junning went to Chen Fan's house and met his sister-in-law whom he hadn't seen for a long time. This sister-in-law from the south of the Yangtze River with a gentle personality moved him very much. He was much happier getting along with her sister than Tang Han. Of course, if you let If he chooses,
He felt that it would be better for these two women to be his elder sisters, and he did the same. The only regret was that he didn't see Chen Fan's daughter, that eccentric little girl, who should be more than 5 years old this year.
In the next few days, Luo Junning was familiar with the operation of the company during working hours, and gradually participated in Chen Fan's work process, but he existed more as an observer and did not use his identity to influence Chen Fan. Chen Fan's decision, after several negotiations with the Google Ministry of Foreign Affairs and interest-exchange negotiations, Luo Junning absorbed the relevant knowledge in this area like a sponge. It was not that he suddenly became concerned about family affairs, but that it seemed It can be used in Unlimited Productions. After all, he often deals with the executives of MBC, one of the three major TV stations, as the owner of Unlimited Productions. In the future, he may even exchange benefits with the executives of KBS and SBS. It is always good to learn some knowledge in this area, so as not to be in a hurry in the future. After all, the executives of the three Korean TV stations will not be more "economically savvy" than the people of a professional world-class company like Google, right?
Chen Fan was very satisfied with Luo Junning's performance during this period, and privately told Tang Han about Luo Junning's performance here. In his opinion, Luo Junning may not be a qualified executor, but he already has a qualified controller should have the basis.
In his spare time, Luo Junning was actively completing the selected topics. After the target topics were determined, he dragged Chen Fan to mainly collect information on housing loans and the policies of the US Federal Reserve, and quickly completed a series of analyzes And estimates, and boldly made assumptions and speculations, and also gave several possible scenarios at the end. The worst scenario is of course the most likely large-scale economic crisis in his simulation.
"A large-scale economic crisis caused by the subprime housing credit crisis?" Looking at this paper, Chen Fan was silent, but there was a strange light in his eyes.
Luo Junning laughed and said: "This is the worst plan. If the U.S. government does not adjust the current policy soon and improve the rating system, it may really be possible for such a situation to happen, but the possibility is really not very high. After all It’s the United States, although I don’t have a particularly good impression of this country, but it is the strongest country in the world after all.”
Is it the strongest?
Chen Fan shook his head and said with a smile: "This paper is good, do you mind if I make a copy?"
"Anything, as long as Brother Chen is not your name at the back of the paper and it will be published." Luo Junning said indifferently.
"You kid, am I the kind of person who steals people's achievements?" Chen Fan scolded with a smile. After copying this paper, he sent it back to China and sent it to Luo Junning's father, and soon he I also received a phone call from Luo Zesheng, asking about the possibilities predicted in this paper. In the end, a plan to deal with this possible economic crisis and how to get the most benefit in this possible economic crisis also started. With a rough chapter, there will be someone to start perfecting it.
After hanging up the phone, Chen Fan looked at the paper in front of him, and silently thought: Jun Ning has sharp eyes, but it is still a bit too idealistic. The United States is very strong, yes, but the strongest point is the weakest point. Well, there are too many powerful economies. Therefore, the possibility of this large-scale economic crisis, which is expected to be the least likely, is greatly increased in the competition among these powerful economies in the United States. This is an opportunity. , is an opportunity for Zelu to expand itself and truly enter the US market.
Luo Junning didn't know what Chen Fan was doing. At this moment, he was watching the dance videos of beautiful women one after another on the computer, with a scrutiny in his eyes. Don't get me wrong, he wasn't picking targets, after all, he already had He has a girlfriend, and he still cherishes his current girlfriend very much. Now, he is just choosing a dance teacher for his girlfriend. This is also his second assignment in the United States besides the thesis. (To be continued.)