Chapter 106: Training of Traders
Lin Antu looked at Su Yu, not expecting him to be so decisive.
After being stunned for a moment, he held Su Yu's hand tightly and said with a smile: "Don't worry, Mr. Su. Since I am honest with you, I naturally want to work with you, Mr. Su, to bring better things to the company." develop."
"Okay!" Su Yu nodded with a smile, picked up a cup of tea on the table, and said, "Then I wish everyone can work together and create a new chapter in the future."
With that said, the three of them had a drink with each other, using tea instead of wine to celebrate Lin Antu's joining.
Later, under the leadership of Su Yu, the three of them talked about many topics. At this point, he had a better understanding of Lin Antu and felt more at ease.
At 8 o'clock in the evening, after dinner, the three of them dispersed.
When Su Yu returned home, he saw Li Meng holding the computer and trying to review the stock market. He couldn't help but be a little surprised and asked curiously: "What did you find? What insights do you have?"
"The market is going pretty weak."
Li Meng looked up at Su Yu and replied: "Although it rebounded today, the ChiNext Index, the Shenzhen Stock Exchange Index and the Shanghai Stock Exchange Index have all ended their four consecutive negative trends, and there is still a golden needle to find the bottom, but In fact, the hot spots are scattered, and there is no sector that can really gather popularity and funds. "
"And, with such sluggish trading volume in the two cities."
"Funds from the two cities are still flowing out."
"This phenomenon is most prominent on the main board. It seems that the main funds of institutions are singing long while selling rapidly at the same time. They have different opinions and are very fragmented."
"But your Shanghai Steel Federation is still strong."
Li Meng smiled and continued: "When you entered the market and the market exploded like that, you were still able to close the positive line of 3 points, which was only a little lower than the opening price. Its market capital was in The following effect on this check is really amazing.”
"But, the trend of this check tomorrow should be very worrying."
"Oh?" Su Yu asked, "How can you see it?"
"After the Dragon and Tiger List came out, everyone saw you selling off more than 60 million chips, and their hearts went cold." Li Meng said, turning the computer screen to show Su Yu the topics of the Shanghai Steel Federation's stock discussion forum, and On the webpage she opened, there were various hot topics, and she chuckled, "The influence of your seat is the same as that of the Shanghai Steel Federation, which is really surprising."
"It's not that my seat has great influence." Su Yu said, "It's the original emotional trend of the market. That's it. I'm just a guide."
"Shanghai Steel Federation has reached this point, and the chasing and following the trend of funds has reached its limit."
"It's impossible to go any higher."
"Moreover, even if I don't smash the market today, according to the turnover rate of this stock, its short-term market will end here."
"For the market, there has never been a single person, or a main force of funds, that can support the situation and reverse the market trend."
"us……"
"No matter whether you have large funds or small funds, you can only follow the trend and provide emotional guidance."
"This is true regardless of whether the trend is a macroeconomic trend, a performance trend based on stock price fundamentals, or an emotional following trend in short-term speculation."
"It makes sense!" Li Meng nodded, agreeing with Su Yu's words.
"By the way, Su Yu..." Li Meng paused for a while and continued, "What do you think of the next market trend? And...after the Shanghai Steel Union's check, which one do you plan to make? Target?"
"My opinion is similar to yours."
Su Yu said: "You are right, the market rebound is still too weak, and the choices and ideas of hot money and market institutions' main funds are too separated."
"In this fragmented situation..."
"The K-line shape looks like a bottom, but judging from its volume and energy shape and the emotional and financial aspects reflected in the current market, it is still extremely difficult for the index to stabilize at this position."
"As for which check to make after Shanghai Steel Union..."
Su Yu thought for a while and continued: "I haven't thought about this yet, but I am sure that the main line in the future will still be on the several major concept sectors where GEM stocks gather."
"It's just that the current market has not shown any signs of bottoming out, and neither the financial nor emotional aspects are ready to start the market."
"We can only wait secretly and observe slowly."
After saying that, Su Yu told him that he had ended his financial management operations and had returned the account to the customer, and at the same time, he also talked about Lin Antu.
"It's good that it's over!"
Li Meng nodded and said: "When I saw that you had more than 60 million yuan on the Dragon Tiger List, I became nervous for you, for fear that people from the Securities Regulatory Bureau and the police would knock on the door."
"Uh..." Su Yu chuckled, "No, it's not that serious if the people don't take action and the officials don't investigate."
"not to mention……"
Su Yu paused and said: "The current regulatory attitude is originally loose. Otherwise, if we severely crack down on hot money speculation in the market at this time, I am afraid that the Shanghai Stock Exchange Index will fall below 2,000 points, and by then, market sentiment will be even worse." Unfortunately, the political task of restarting IPOs and restoring the direct financing function of the stock market has become even more distant and difficult to achieve. "
"IPO has indeed been suspended for a long time." Li Meng said, "Do you think there is hope for a restart in the short term?"
Su Yu shook his head and said: "The market sentiment is gone, the money-making effect is not gathered, and there are no new investors entering the market. There is no way to restart the IPO."
"After all, the total transaction volume of the two markets is less than 50 billion, and both public and private equity funds are half-dead."
"Even if the IPO is restarted, the new shares will inevitably fall below the issue price."
"In that case, the function of direct financing cannot be achieved, and naturally there is no meaning."
"So..."
"If you want to restart the IPO, you must wait until the market is bullish, the trend reverses, the market has a continuous money-making effect, and a large number of new investors continue to enter the market."
"Yes!" Li Meng nodded, his eyes suddenly lit up, "Since the IPO cannot be restarted in the short term, if the company wants to be listed on the A-share market, the only way is to reorganize and borrow a shell company."
"Why, do you want to speculate on shell companies?" Su Yu smiled.
Li Meng replied: "In the case that the IPO cannot be restarted, this should be considered a relatively sustainable speculation theme, right?"
"It can be considered." Su Yu nodded with a smile, "But it needs wind!"
"Wind?" Li Meng frowned slightly.
Su Yu responded and continued, "Yes, the restructuring line has always been a long-lasting hype theme in the market despite the suspension of IPOs, but each wave of hype often needs a successful case of restructuring and backdoor listing to stimulate it. Usually, after a stock is successfully restructured, the increase in the resumption of trading exceeds market expectations, which is the best time to speculate on the shell."
"But at the current time point, this wind has not arrived."
Su Yu thought for a while and continued, "Any market hype behavior is not created out of thin air. The formation of the main line of the market, in addition to the promotion of funds and the guidance of emotions, the most important thing is the stimulation of the external "wind outlet". Only by standing on the wind outlet and relying on funds and emotions can a sustainable market be created, and considerable profits can be harvested from this sustainable market."
"So, this is the underlying logic of short-term speculation?" Li Meng said suddenly.
Su Yu smiled and said, "You can also say that without the support of underlying logic, relying solely on capital promotion and emotional guidance will always be a castle in the air, and it is difficult to be sustainable. Without a sustainable market, it is easy for capital to enter but difficult to exit, and it is difficult to obtain any excess profits."
"I understand!" Li Meng nodded, "Thank you!"
Su Yu looked at her with a smile and asked, "You... are studying this? Short-term logic!"
"Yes!" Li Meng nodded, "I was thinking, you hyped from Tianyu Information to Huaqingbao, from Huaqingbao to Fenda Technology, and then from Fenda Technology to Shanghai Steel Union, why can you succeed every time, why can these stocks gather enough popularity and market funds to follow suit when you participate? But now that you remind me, I have initially understood that your short-term speculation ability is indeed beyond the reach of ordinary people."
Su Yu laughed and thought to himself, "If I don't have the rearview mirror of rebirth and ten years of experience, it would be unlikely to accurately judge these and act at the most appropriate time."
However, he would definitely not say this.
"By the way, in addition to feeling that the main funds in the market are constantly flowing out, and the institutional funds are relatively separated from what they say and do, have you noticed anything unusual?" Su Yu stared at Li Meng and reminded, "For example, why do these institutional funds continue to flow out at this position, why do they sing long while selling short? Have you thought about the logic behind this?"
"In my opinion, any change in the market is not without reason."
"Reviewing the market is not to look at the rise and fall of stock prices, nor is it to focus only on the changes in sentiment in the market. It is to explore the logic behind it from the subtle changes in the market, think about what happened outside the market, and then deduce the subsequent market evolution."
"You think that the golden needle bottoming is not the bottom, then what is the reason for the continuous decline of the market, the continuous selling of the main funds of various departments, and the serious tightening of the market funds?"
"Only by finding the logic behind it can we deduce the next market!"
"Only by being mentally prepared can we formulate a reliable investment strategy and not be confused when the market comes."
Compared to him, Li Meng at this time lacked a lot in terms of operating experience, thinking about the market, logical deduction ability, and market perception ability...
Therefore, in order to help the other party grow quickly, he didn't mind explaining it more clearly and helping the other party grow faster.
When Li Meng heard Su Yu's advice, she felt a buzz in her mind, and many problems that had troubled her suddenly became clear.
Su Yu saw her in deep thought...
He smiled, and didn't bother her anymore. He went into the bedroom, changed his clothes, and went to take a shower.
Then, when he finished washing up and returned to the living room.
Li Meng was searching for some news about bank loans, and recording various economic data in the first quarter, such as changes in money supply, social financing growth, PPI data, GDP growth data and the relationship between the central bank's monetary policy, looking for the current market funds. The reasons for the tightening of bank loans and the collapse of market financing.
"How?" Su Yu asked.
Li Meng noticed his gaze, smiled and looked up, and said excitedly: "No wonder you cleared all your positions today. Not only is the stock market sad, but the entire financial system should be in crisis."
"Have you found the reason?" Su Yu continued to ask.
Li Meng nodded and said, "The interbank lending rate and overnight repurchase rate of banks are rising more and more steeply. It seems that they are on the verge of getting out of control. From the information channels of the entire network, there are many information about bank loan approvals recently. Whether it is large or small enterprises or individuals, loan approvals have been very difficult recently."
"While bank loan approvals are tightened..."
"I also saw some rural commercial banks and local regional banks openly increase the benchmark interest rate by 30% and 50% in order to attract deposits."
"Tighten loans while madly attracting deposits."
"Even a fool can know that the bank is short of money, and it seems that this This situation has been happening for some time, and there are signs that it is getting worse. "
"From the economic data in the first quarter."
"Both the central bank and the banks have carried out a large wave of money release at the beginning of the year."
"But this wave of money release, judging from the GDP data and PPI data, has not stimulated the economy. Instead, it has resulted in excess liquidity, extremely poor efficiency in the use of funds, and increased inflation."
"So, I guess the central bank has not been moved by the long-term problems in the market funding side."
"It must be that the direction of monetary macroeconomic policy has changed."
"In other words, this is forcing banks to tighten off-balance sheet assets, allowing them to solve risks and crises on their own, tighten liquidity, Suppress inflation and improve the efficiency of fund use. "
"When banks shrink off-balance sheet assets, they will definitely reduce their holdings of securities assets or other investment assets."
"Therefore, this has caused the stock market to fall sharply and institutional funds to continue to flow out, and this situation... seems to be unlikely to change easily before the central bank makes a new monetary decision."
Su Yu heard Li Meng's words, gave him a thumbs up, and smiled and said: "I have to say that you are still very good. You found the key node in such a short time."
"You are still a good guide!" Li Meng chuckled, "Under the undercurrent, the storm should be very close. I originally guessed that the market's golden needle today was not so stable. Solid, now look... this golden needle, I am afraid that many investors will be buried here! "
"Markets always start from despair."
Su Yu said: "Without this last drop, how can the market be reborn? Only these most stubborn institutional main forces have no choice but to cut their losses in this market money shortage crisis and release the bottom chips, the market can usher in "lightweight", can truly rely on limited funds to gradually restore market sentiment, create a continuous money-making effect, and thus achieve positive feedback upward in the market and reverse the bear market pattern. "
"So, in my opinion, this is not a bad thing."
"Yeah!" Li Meng responded, thought about it, and continued to study the market.
Su Yu said "Go to bed early", then went into the bedroom alone, lay on the bed and browsed the news and forums on his mobile phone for a while, and then fell asleep.
In the next few days...
Su Yu occasionally inspected the company's renovation progress, and then interviewed several rounds of company management personnel at Qin Haowen's request. The rest of the time, he stayed at home to guide Li Meng to do intraday short-term operations, or deepen her logical understanding of market changes, helping her grow quickly.
Until Tuesday, June 18.
When there were only two days left in the half-month deadline he agreed with Li Huiyuan, the boss of "Yichuang Planning", when Li Huiyuan took the initiative to call him and invited him to have dinner together again.
At this time, Su Yu walked out of the house and came alone to the restaurant where the other party asked Shi Yuling to meet him last time.