Chapter 677: Confidence Is More Important than Gold!
But when 9:15 comes, the two cities enter the call auction.
It can be seen that the main core stocks of the two cities, various industry sector indexes, concept sector indexes, etc., all opened higher with the assistance of pre-market sentiment and the aggressive rush for funds by long funds. Among them, market investors paid higher attention, and the popularity and Mainline core stocks and concept leading stocks that are highly discussed are showing a trend of opening significantly higher.
Especially after the market dragon and tiger list data were released yesterday, the stocks ranked among the top ten in terms of attention and discussion in the two cities.
Stocks such as 'Western Securities, Flush, Huake Shuguang, Hengsheng Electronics, Jinzheng Shares, LeTV, Oriental Fortune...' have opened higher with gains of more than 3%. Among them, 'Huake Shuguang' continues to maintain Wuliang Straight Board's daily limit trend, Western Securities and Flush initially opened higher, both at an increase of more than 5%.
"It's high again!"
At 9:16, in the main fund trading room of Zexi Investment Company in Shanghai, Zhou Kan, who was observing the changes in the market prices of the two cities, sighed with emotion: "It is really a complete short squeeze trend. The investment sentiment of the entire market shows , are all ridiculously strong, and the active attack power of various funds is also ridiculously strong.
Looking at the current market situation, compared with half a year ago, or even compared with the first half of the year, it is simply different.
But if we talk about how much the market fundamentals and macroeconomic fundamentals have changed in the past six months, or more than half a year, I think... there has not been much change in essence.
However, the market trend has formed two extremes in this short period of more than half a year.
More than half a year ago.
No one could have imagined that the market turnover would reach 600 billion in the last two months of the year, right? I didn’t expect that the financing balance would suddenly reach the trillion mark.
Seeing the current market performance, and recalling the first half of the year, major financial institutions all said that the market's failure was due to funding problems, saying that under the 'money shortage crisis', the market could not have a bull market. As a result, ...Now it’s really a slap in the face!
Facts have proved that the market is not short of money at all.
As long as the market continues to make money, the investor group's investment risk preference will increase.
Then, even if the overall capital situation on and off the market is tight, there will still be countless capital flows into the stock market in various forms and through various channels. "
Xu Xiang, who was sitting next to Zhou Kan, squinted his eyes and looked at the changes in the initial collective bidding trends of the two cities. He responded with a smile: "Whether it is the domestic financial market or the foreign financial market, facts have proven that expectations and confidence are both important. It is something more important than gold.
In fact, before the central bank took any substantive monetary policy measures.
That is, before there is no substantial large-scale release of liquidity to the market, interest rate cuts, reserve requirement ratio cuts, and large-scale public operations.
The financial situation of the market has not changed substantially compared to half a year ago, or even more than half a year ago.
However, why did the overall market turnover soar several times in just half a year? Why was the overall market transaction volume at the beginning of the year generally only about 50 billion to 80 billion, but now it has stabilized at around 500 billion or 600 billion? Where do so many incremental funding groups come from? Why are you so aggressive in entering the market?
The fundamental reason is that the market's investment confidence and investment expectations play a role.
This is an investment era where expectations and confidence are more important than underlying fundamental performance!
As long as there are expectations and confidence, then the market's continued money-making effect will continue to expand step by step, and the bull market will naturally emerge.
In fact, whether it is the broader market, the overall performance of the entire market.
We should also follow this logic in our investment ideas and trading operations.
In the market, there are many stocks that do not seem to have very good fundamentals, but the main funds are quite aggressive in raising funds. This is because they are supported by future expectations and confidence.
Just like securities and Internet finance, the two most popular main sectors with the most crazy capital accumulation at present.
Among them, many popular stocks have doubled their share prices while their performance remains unchanged. This is also driven by strong expectations for the future. "
"Indeed!" Zhou Kan deeply agreed with what Xu Xiang said, nodded, and responded with a smile, "The stock price always reacts before the fundamentals, such as securities and Internet finance, two major continuous forces. I’m thinking about the empty sector...if the central bank starts to officially cut interest rates and reserve requirement ratios, and all the good things that everyone expected begin to materialize, the stock prices of these core stocks will most likely slow down, right?”
Xu Xiang said: "This is for sure. The logic of the rise and fall of the stock price is not the realization of expectations, but the strength or weakness of the expected difference. The good things that can be expected, even if the good things are realized, are within expectations and will not increase." The difference in original expectations of large stocks will naturally not have much stimulating effect on the stock price. This is also the fundamental logical reason for the so-called "all the good things are gone, but the bad things are bad".
The main line of "big finance" is the expected point of the first wave of gains.
There is a high probability that the central bank's monetary policy will actually turn around, that is, when the news of interest rate cuts and reserve requirement ratio cuts that everyone expected will officially take effect.
But..."
Xu Xiang paused and said: "As long as the market's 'bull market' pattern continues, the market's two-market turnover will continue to rise. Even if the positive impact of the central bank's monetary policy shift is realized, the 'big finance' loses its aggressive short squeeze momentum and falls into adjustment, the decline should not be deep.
Just like the two core themes of 'infrastructure' and 'military industry'.
Although its internal chip structure has temporarily dispersed, and with the implementation of many positive factors, many main capital groups have realized the positive factors and stopped profit, but under the condition that the bull market pattern continues and the market liquidity is becoming more and more abundant, and the forward investment logic of these two core themes and the forward expectations are still strong, once the adjustment is downward, the funds to be taken over will still be very strong. .”
“Boss, are you saying that the two previous main lines of ‘infrastructure’ and ‘military industry’ are unlikely to fall further under this market trend?” Zhou Kan roughly understood what Xu Xiang meant, “Boss, do you think that the two core lines of ‘infrastructure’ and ‘military industry’ will have a big market in the future?”
Xu Xiang thought for a while and responded: “Whether the two core lines of ‘infrastructure’ and ‘military industry’ can continue to move out of the third wave of the main rising market, it is still unclear at present. What I can see is that… these two core lines should be difficult to continue to fall. After all, under such a strong market active capital carrying force, especially the stocks in the two core lines of ‘infrastructure’ and ‘military industry’, the actual valuation level is not high, and the future expectation gap is still not small. , it is obvious that some active capital groups overflowing from the main line of "big finance" are fully capable of taking over this market.
And...
The two major macroeconomic structural strategic policies of "New Era Road, Maritime Silk Road" and "Reform and Restructuring of Central Enterprises and State-owned Enterprises" are truly top-level design policies.
Such top-level design policies will certainly be followed by countless supporting favorable policies.
In other words, there will definitely be no shortage of favorable news in the main areas of "infrastructure" and "military industry", and the expectation gap in these areas is completely possible to further expand.
What's more, the increase in national defense spending and the reform of military enterprises are basically clear routes.
It is highly likely that it will not change for several years or even ten years.
With such a long-term expectation, the main line market is naturally impossible to only follow this path. It will be over in just one wave or a few months.
There are also policy orientations in the direction of "big infrastructure" and changes in the real estate market.
Its role in promoting the performance of companies in the relevant industrial chain is relatively lagging.
Like real estate companies, generally after the real estate market is hot, it will not be transmitted to the company's profit report until the second or even third year.
This also means that the continuity of the market cannot be just two or three months, or even a quarter.
The bull market continues.
The two core themes of "infrastructure" and "military industry" will definitely have the opportunity to be concentratedly hyped by the main funds in the future, and there is a high probability that a larger main line market will be born.
Of course, at present, the adjustment pattern of these two core themes has not ended.
Many main fund groups gathered in these two core themes are still flowing out under the stimulation of the continuous short squeeze trend of the "big finance" themes, and continue to converge to the "big finance" themes.
Specifically, these two themes, can they come out again in the future?
We have to wait for a period of time after the expectations of the main line of "big finance" are fully reflected, the market divergence increases again, and the siphon effect on the active capital flow of the entire market is reduced. "
"What about the line of "technological growth"? "Zhou Kan asked, "I think compared with the two core main lines of "infrastructure" and "military industry", the line of "technological growth" should have a larger expectation gap and stronger future expectations, right? Moreover, the line of "technological growth" has been adjusted for a long time. Without considering the strong rebound in June, the starting point of the adjustment of the line of "technological growth" should be at the end of last year.
In fact, last year, the ChiNext Index was able to double the index and had the so-called "small bull market" trend, which was completely driven by the main line of "technological growth".
And after almost a year of adjustment.
The high valuation left by last year's speculation has basically returned to a reasonable range under the digestion of the continued high growth of performance of many core stocks this year.
And the current market has entered the form of a bull market.
According to the confidence and expectations of investors in the bull market, the valuations of these high-growth stocks should be overestimated.
Therefore, I think the opportunities in the main line of "technological growth".
The market outlook should not be worse than the main lines of "infrastructure" and "military industry" mentioned by the boss just now. "
Xu Xiang smiled and said: "It is not bad, but the capital carrying capacity of the line of "technological growth" is still very limited. If the bull market wants to reach a high level, it still needs the two main lines of "infrastructure" and "finance" to lead, otherwise it will not be able to truly stimulate the market investor sentiment and confidence.
This can be seen from the fact that the ChiNext Index doubled last year, and the entire "technological growth" main line soared on a large scale.
However, it did not drive the Shanghai and Shenzhen Indexes, and did not drive the core main line stocks of the market, causing the two markets to quickly kill back in the first quarter of this year, and almost hit a new low for the Shanghai Index. You can know that a comprehensive bull market still needs the core main line to drive it. "
"That's true!" Zhou Kan thought for a while and finally nodded.
As the two discussed the market and analyzed the development of the market outlook.
At this time, when the two people returned their eyes to the trading boards of the two markets.
The time has come to around 9:22. I saw that after the initial collective bidding in the two cities, after a large number of orders were withdrawn on a large scale from 9:19 to 9:20, the pattern showed is worse than that at 9:15. Not only has there been no significant decline, but it has actually become stronger.
It seems that the index cannot adjust, but it has a strong trend of continuing to break through.
Finally, when the time came to 9:25, the collective bidding in the two cities ended.
I saw that the Shanghai Index opened higher near an increase of 0.56%, while the Shenzhen Stock Exchange Index and ChiNext Index opened higher around 0.45%, also opening significantly higher.
In addition to the three core indexes.
The core main lines of the two cities, as well as the performance of the concept sector.
On the whole, it is still the main line of "big finance" that leads the rise, and other main lines follow the performance of the index, either opening slightly higher or opening weakly and flatly.
The only ones that opened low were the 'military industry' sector that was affected by the 'Blue Stone Heavy Equipment' check.
As for popular stocks, the performance of concept leading stocks.
The top ten stocks that investors in the two cities pay attention to, as well as the top ten stocks that are most discussed.
'Blue Stone Heavy Equipment' opened sharply lower by 4.22% today under the trend of falling to the limit yesterday. During the entire collective bidding process, the market turnover reached more than 37.8 million; The transaction volume was 320,000 yuan, and the trend was extremely strong.
'Flush', the core leading stock in the Internet financial sector, opened 3.29% higher today. During the entire collective bidding process, the transaction volume was only more than 3 million. Compared with yesterday, the volume has shrunk significantly. This high-level shrinkage also proves that The capital group on the market is still further optimistic about the market outlook of this stock, and continues to lock up the position.
'Western Securities', the core leading stock in the securities sector, opened 2.75% higher today, and the intensity has decreased. However, the trading volume during the entire call auction process is still shrinking compared with yesterday, and the securities sector index has also declined. It still opened at a high opening range of 1.35%, leading the gains in the industry sectors of the two cities.
This shows that in the securities sector, the enthusiasm of the capital groups chasing high positions remains undiminished.
It also shows that the capital group on the market, after the market divergence yesterday and the day before yesterday, has once again turned to a consensus of long lock positions.
Other stocks such as "LeTV, Hengsheng Electronics, Oriental Fortune, Huace Film and Television, Yanjing Culture...".
They have also achieved a trend of opening higher one after another.
Overall, according to the opening patterns of the two cities, the market's investment sentiment and investment confidence have not declined at all, and the continuous profit-making effect of the two cities, as well as the main line market pattern, are still continuing and maintaining The market is in a virtuous cycle.
Faced with this opening situation...
The investor groups both inside and outside the market were obviously high-pitched and excited.
And everyone has obviously higher expectations for the market trend after the market officially opens and enters the continuous bidding stage.
It is in this high-pitched and exciting emotional interpretation.
The market's brief 5-minute suspension time passed in a blink of an eye. Unknowingly, the time reached 9:30, and the two cities ushered in the stage of continuous bidding transactions.
I saw that the market had just officially opened, and the market prices of the two markets had just started to jump.
In the main areas of 'big finance', the securities sector, the Internet finance sector, a number of core concept stocks and weighted stocks were once again attacked by countless buying funds in an instant. At the same time, in many previous trading days, stocks that had always been weak Stocks in the main fields of 'infrastructure' and 'military industry' also suddenly ushered in a large amount of funds at this moment. Several major related industry sector indexes and concept sector indexes rose rapidly under the influence of large-scale active buying. Lightning ranked at the top of the growth lists of industry sectors and concept sectors in the two cities.