Chapter 15 Before the Crash
$1515, $1511, $1509…
In less than fifteen minutes, gold fell by more than $25, plummeting 250 points, breaking through numerous short-term stop-loss orders set near the 1521 price.
Within these fifteen minutes, Su Yu's position profits skyrocketed.
A total of 1.6 positions were held, with a profit of more than 8,000 US dollars. The total account funds reached more than 8,800 US dollars, and the available margin also increased to more than 7,400 US dollars.
Su Yu stared at the continued plummeting trend of gold, holding the mouse in his right hand, and did not increase his position to kill the fall for the time being.
If the bullish defense line of $1,500 is not broken, the price of gold will definitely continue to rise.
He is waiting for the market bulls who are still holding on to luck at this moment to use their last funds to hunt for the bottom and hit a secondary high before gold officially breaks through $1,500.
And that secondary high point is his heavy entry position.
The distance between 1,521 and 1,500 US dollars has accumulated too much bullish power. Even if the market is hit by a strong negative blow and the shorts are full of momentum, it will be difficult to directly penetrate it in one go.
so……
After plunging more than 250 points in one breath, it should be inevitable for gold to rebound briefly to absorb profits from ultra-short-term investors to cover, and solid long-term investors with luck to buy the bottom.
Sure enough, while Su Yu was waiting patiently.
After gold hit its lowest price of 1508.75, it rebounded at 7:33.
"Haha, hold on. Under the negative attack, gold once again supported the price of 1,500 US dollars." Seeing that gold rebounded rapidly after the negative plunge, many bullish posts appeared on various trading forums that Su Yu followed. It began to appear, "Looking at the situation...it seems to be the ultimate departure!"
"There is no doubt that it is a complete deviation."
"Indeed, today's low and last Thursday's low have just formed a divergence trend between the daily line and the bottom."
"Two bad times failed to allow gold prices to break through $1,500. This is enough to prove the strong support attribute here, right? Be optimistic about gold...it will inevitably have a V-shaped reversal today."
"What a God-given bargain hunting opportunity!"
“It’s a big move, and then it declines, and it’s all gone. Since the short sellers failed to break through the support of $1,500 despite the negative situation, it will be impossible to break through again in the future.”
"The price of gold has corrected from US$1,920 on September 6, 2011 to now. It has been corrected for long enough, and it is almost time to resume its upward trend."
"Do more, do more..."
“With global inflation currently at high levels, it is most reassuring to be long gold.”
"Yes, gold has been bullish for more than ten years since 2001. Even Goldman Sachs said it will see $2,500 in the next year. There is no reason not to buy the bottom at this time."
Among the many comments, the majority are still bullish and long-doing.
After all, after more than ten years of gold bull market, being long and bullish on gold has almost become ingrained in the minds of most investors.
Even at this moment, the price of gold is only a hair away from falling below the bull-bear line of $1,500.
Everyone does not think that gold will break through $1,500 and fall into a tragic bear market.
With the influx of bulls copying the market and profit-covering by ultra-short-term short-sellers, in the final period of the European market, the price of gold continued to rise after the negative blow, quickly approaching the previous low of $1,521.
And after entering the US market...
The rebound trend of gold prices has begun to stagnate again as the power of ultra-short-term short-term profit-covering elements has once again failed.
Su Yu saw that the gold price pulsed upward several times near 1518 US dollars, but failed to get out of the continuous upward trend. Knowing that the secondary rebound high point he was waiting for had arrived, he held the mouse tightly and read this in one breath. Position, placed 2 gold short positions.
Compare the total funds in his account at this moment, and the amount of available margin.
A short gold position of 2 standard lots is already considered a heavy position.
After Su Yu completed the order, the price of gold continued to fluctuate briefly around $1,518 before beginning to fall again under the pressure of short sellers.
After digesting the ultra-short-term profit taking during the negative and plummeting stage of the European market.
The downward trend of gold has become more sharp than the previous rebound trend. In more than half an hour, it is once again approaching the negative plunge low of $1508.75.
Su Yu stared at the smoothly falling time-sharing line of gold and made no further moves.
He is waiting...
When new negative news appears in the market tonight, and after gold has exhausted all the bargain-hunting power of the bulls, it will eventually break through the $1,500 mark in a flash crash, burying all the bulls in the market.
The Sword of Damocles that the Central Bank of Cyprus is about to sell off its gold reserves on a large scale is hanging over the market.
He does not believe that Wall Street hedge funds, Goldman Sachs, Morgan and other large investment banks will not take any action even though they know that the fundamentals of gold have turned completely negative.
Currently, the gold long positions of the world's largest hedge funds are still huge.
And this is the reason why the market will inevitably plummet next...
Because the large major bull institutions on the market cannot remain indifferent after realizing that the market is not good, they will inevitably reduce their positions significantly and reduce the risk of their positions.
The concentrated reduction and covering of positions by these large institutions is the biggest weapon to kill the falling market.
While Su Yu was waiting, at 10:17 p.m., the price of gold hit $1,508 and received short-term support again.
At this time, the only long bottom-fishing positions left in the market also poured in again, hoping that gold would bottom out and rebound violently like last week.
At this time...
Su Yu, who was waiting patiently, suddenly received an application from the account manager of the East China region of the foreign exchange trading company where he opened an account on Penguin to invite him to join the group.
Su Yu took a look and agreed.
After all, his previous job was no different from the other party. Generally, he would agree to such invitations to join the group if it did not involve his own interests.
Of course, after joining the group, he generally did not like to talk except for work tasks.
"The gold price fluctuated greatly tonight. I wonder if it can hold $1,500?" After Su Yu entered the group, he found that everyone's topic was still on gold, and he could not help but read on.
"The bottom that the market has spent two years building should still have enough support."
"Cyprus is a small country. How much impact can the central bank's selling of excess gold reserves have on the market? I don't think there is any need to be afraid."
"Anyway, I bought the bottom and placed an order for 1.5 lots of gold longs at a price of $1508.45."
"Last Thursday, the Federal Reserve's monetary policy meeting was scary enough, right? At that time, the entire market's bearish sentiment was unprecedentedly high, but gold made a shocking reversal in the second half of the night. I think the gold market today is likely to be the same. The winning rate of going long at this position should be much greater than that of going short."
"Yes, even if it is the negative news of the Cyprus Central Bank crisis, gold has fallen from above $1530 to $1508. I think it should have reacted. The follow-up should be the market recovery after the negative news is implemented. Going long... There is no problem at all."
"There is nothing wrong with going long, but you didn't mention the key point "The reason why gold has strong support here and will not fall below is that this price is the cost range for Goldman Sachs, Morgan, and many large hedge funds around the world to repeatedly increase their long positions. It is also the cost range for the gold positions held by major central banks around the world. Moreover, this is the real bull-bear line of gold. The current global economic situation is still not optimistic, and inflation is still climbing. The gold bull market will definitely continue. "
"So, boldly increase your position and buy at the bottom."
"If you miss this opportunity, you may not see this price of gold again in the next year."
"Since Mr. Huang is strongly bullish and calls for buying at the bottom, gold will definitely not fall below this price. I will listen to Mr. Huang and increase my position by 2 more gold longs."
"I will also continue to increase my position by 0.3 more gold longs."
Su Yu saw the ID named "Golden Midas Touch" and the name everyone called him in the subsequent discussion.
I always feel that this person is familiar, but I can't remember it for a while.
"Teacher Huang's prediction of the gold market last Thursday was completely correct, but unfortunately I hesitated at that time and didn't have time to increase my position." While Su Yu was thinking, an ID named 'Investment Like the Sea' in the group continued to speak, "Since this is a rare opportunity, I will go all out. At the position of 1508 US dollars, I entered the market with 25 lots of gold long orders. I really made a lot of money. I will definitely treat Teacher Huang to a meal another day."
Su Yu saw the number of 25 lots and knew that this was a big investor. He was a little surprised.
Then, he carefully looked at the public information of this person's account and found that this group member 'Investment Like the Sea' was actually an investment client of the sales department he was responsible for before.
This person's surname is Sun. He is the boss of a construction company in Yuhang and has a lot of assets.
At that time, in order to let this person open an account and invest in the sales department, Su Yu spent a lot of effort, but unfortunately... Later, the other party disliked the stock market situation was really sluggish, could not make money, and was not exciting enough, so he stopped trading and withdrew from his customer list.
Su Yu never expected that after withdrawing from the stock market, the other party actually turned to the foreign exchange trading market.
I never expected to meet him in this group.
"My friend, you are too polite." While Su Yu was thinking, the ID of 'Golden Midas Touch' replied, "I just expressed my understanding of the market situation so that I can track it. No one can tell what the real market trend will be. If you want to operate according to my opinion, you can't blame me if you lose money."
After Su Yu saw that the other party was confidently bullish on gold, he immediately began to shirk responsibility.
He felt a little contemptuous.
Seeing this, the ID of 'Investment Like the Sea' immediately replied: "I agree with Mr. Huang's views and logic. As for investment... once you enter the market, you will naturally bear your own profits and losses."
As he spoke, he posted a screenshot of his position in the group.
I saw that in the account with a total of 130,000 US dollars, there were already 32 long positions in gold, and 25 of them were obviously newly added.
Seeing this amount of foreign exchange investment account.
In the group of more than 800 people, many retail investors online exclaimed "big brother".
Su Yuze raised his eyebrows, foreseeing that the other party's funds of hundreds of thousands of dollars, nearly one million, would most likely be reduced to zero overnight in the next plunge in gold prices without setting a stop loss.
The other party was his former client, and he was thinking...
Facing the upcoming risk of huge losses, is it necessary for him to remind the other party?
After thinking about it carefully for a while, Su Yu felt that it was still necessary to remind him that no matter whether the other party listened or not, at least after the trend of gold plummeting, he was able to make this kind of connections.
As long as he wants to pursue the path of private equity funds in the future, he must make friends with high-quality clients with tens of millions of assets.
Thinking about this...
Su Yu opened the other party's temporary chat box, revealed his identity, and expressed his opinion.
"You said that the price of gold is at 1,500 US dollars, and it can't be sustained at all?" Boss Sun asked in surprise after reading the message sent by Su Yu.
"Can't hold on!" Su Yu replied, "The target price slogans of major international investment banks such as Goldman Sachs and Morgan are not worthy of belief. The global economy and the monetary policies of central banks of various countries are rapidly changing. In the market, bulls have been consumed by the ten-year golden bull market. After exhausting their efforts, when the market macro fundamentals changed, various hedge funds holding large-scale long gold positions quickly reduced their positions, and the market was simply unable to support it.”
"In my opinion, gold's collapse is inevitable."
"But, didn't Teacher Huang say..." Boss Sun said hesitantly, "He is a well-known influencer on Huihai Finance Network, so he shouldn't talk nonsense, right?"
I heard Boss Sun mention the true identity of this ‘Golden Midas Hand’.
Only then did Su Yu remember everything about this person and replied: "In the bull market during the golden decade, he always sang long regardless of whether the market was short-term or short-term. His logic and views were often wrong. Such a person... is popular What is created by the market, not his ability, is not worthy of trust at all.”
"Okay, Boss Sun, that's all I have to say. Whether you listen or not is up to you."
After saying that, Su Yu closed the temporary conversation window.
After chatting with Su Yu, Boss Sun stared at the trend of gold. His originally confident heart suddenly became uneasy. However, he did not listen to Su Yu's words and immediately reduce his position, or close long positions on a large scale. He opened the chat window of 'Teacher Huang' alone, erased Su Yu's ID name, sent a screenshot of Su Yu's important points to the other party, and asked for his opinion again.
"Boss Sun, your friend's views are completely wrong." 'Teacher Huang' was very angry that Su Yu criticized his views as useless. "I have been following the trend of gold for seven years. Although today's I am not sure about the short-term trend, but I have never missed the general direction of gold.”
"It's impossible for gold to end the bull market here, let alone what he said...continuous plummets."
After saying that, 'Teacher Huang' angrily closed the chat box with Boss Sun, and posted the screenshot that Boss Sun gave him to the group, openly mocking: "Some people think they understand the market. In fact, he is just a frog in the well of the market, and... he is still the kind of frog in the well who has no self-awareness and likes to deceive others! "