Chapter 618 The Core Factor of the Main Line Transformation!

"Indeed." He Hong nodded slightly, "The current market investment sentiment and the investment confidence shown are really different from those two or three months ago.

Especially after the Shanghai Stock Index broke through 2,500 points...

Whether it is the market transaction volume, the balance of financing and financing, or the trend of the two main industries of 'infrastructure' and 'military industry', it is really momentum. It is either at a new high or on the way to a new high. As long as it adjusts, the market will accept funds. , will continue to pour in.

Looking at this situation, I feel that the 3,000 points above should not be able to stop the Shanghai Stock Exchange Index.

At the same time, the market trend is centered on the two major industry lines of 'infrastructure' and 'military industry', as well as the 'Eurasian Economic Belt', 'New Era Road, Maritime Silk Road', and 'reform and reorganization of central and state-owned enterprises'. Style, with such strong support from the market, should continue to grow for a while, right? "

Xu Zhongji thought for a while and said: "It's hard to say. The main lines of the current market have obviously further increased their volume today. Analyzing from the perspective of the chip structure, it should be that some of the chips that were previously locked up are retreating from the profit limit. , but fortunately, the ability to take over is still very strong.

In the follow-up, we should pay attention to these core popular main lines after recovering today's intraday decline.

Can we continue to reduce the amount of energy?

If the volume can be reduced, it means that its internal chip structure. Although the funds for taking profits and reducing positions are gradually withdrawing, the overall chip structure should still be stable. At the same time, the confidence of investors holding positions in these major main areas is still As determined as ever.

If in the subsequent market trend, these core main lines move upward while further increasing their volume significantly.

That shows that its internal chip structure is indeed gradually disintegrating.

In this way... we also have to make corresponding strategic changes and carry out corresponding profit-taking and withdrawal operations. "

"Mr. Xu thinks... which direction will the subsequent trends of these popular core lines be more inclined to?" He Hong thought for a while and continued to ask.

Xu Zhongji chuckled and said, "What do you think?"

"I think these core popular main lines should still maintain their main upward trend and continue to open up room for upside." He Hong said, "After all, the 'Eurasian Economic Belt', 'New Era Road', and Maritime Silk Road The medium- and long-term expectations for the development of several major macroeconomic strategies, including the "Road" and "Reform and Reorganization of Central and State-owned Enterprises", as well as the "big infrastructure" economic stimulus policy, the expectations for the entire "infrastructure" field are also growing.

Under such circumstances, expectations grow, sentiment remains high, and investment confidence is fully restored.

So, in the market as a whole, there is no big main line that can take on the market trends of these popular main lines, and there is no other big main line that can achieve a higher profit-making effect. The main funds of all parties inside and outside the market, as well as various hot money and retail investors Funds will still inertly converge on these core main lines to undertake orders. "

"Haha, not necessarily!" Xu Zhongji said, "Although the underlying investment logic of these core main lines has not changed, the mid- to long-term expectations continue to improve. In the entire 'big infrastructure' field, domestic and foreign industry demand is growing, and They are all in a reversal situation.

However, after a consecutive quarter of main upward trend.

Under the extremely heavy accumulation of profit orders, without reasonable correction and consolidation, the upward pressure will only become greater and greater.

At the same time, although the line of 'technological growth' has not yet shown the end of adjustment, the ability and traces to take on these popular main lines.

However, there are not no investment opportunities in other traditional main lines of the market! "

"Mr. Xu is referring to...which field?" He Hong asked.

He has not seen which traditional main line in the current market can compare with the two major industry main lines of 'infrastructure' and 'military industry' in terms of future expectations. At the same time, he has not seen that the main market funds are converging on other traditional main lines. traces.

Xu Zhongji narrowed his eyes and said, "What do you think of the 'big finance' line?"

"Big finance?" He Hong was stunned, not expecting that Xu Zhongji was referring to this main line. After pondering for a while, he said, "Currently, the banking industry is still in the stage of balance sheet reduction and internal asset structure adjustment. At the same time, it is foreseeable that The macroeconomic growth rate will also grow from high speed to high quality. Coupled with the rise of 'Internet financial' institutions, the awakening of private capital financing channels, and the release of IPOs in the stock market... the banking industry should not have reached the current stage. When industry fundamentals shift, and when expectations shift.

As for the insurance industry…

Although domestic reform measures in this area have been ongoing, the results have not been very good, and there are currently no signs of change.

The final securities industry...

Thanks to the recent continued excellent performance of the market, the increasing balance of financing and financing, and the surge in transaction volume of the entire market.

Its performance and expected performance in the second half of the year are definitely better than last year and even the first half of the year, but it is still unclear whether this is a reversal.

At the same time, during this period, the main financial groups in the market.

It has also pulled the market prices of the 'Securities' sector more than once, but it has not formed a consistent expected situation, nor has it attracted the acceptance and continuous relay of other major financial groups. However, the expectations have not been recognized and cannot form a consistent financial consensus. Together, it will be difficult to produce a sustainable market.

Also, due to the impact of the past two years, the performance of the entire 'big financial' sector has been significantly weaker than the market.

and continued compression of valuations.

The entire main line area is extremely heavy on the hold.

The market cannot form a synergy of funds in this direction, coupled with the obvious lack of confidence among retail investors in this direction, and the active hot money group in the market, they will never touch the "big financial" weighted stocks. When these factors are combined... It is basically unrealistic for the line of 'big finance' to take over the current hot mainline market trends and gather the huge main financial groups and speculative capital groups in the market in this direction.

On the other hand, there are certain investment opportunities in the financial branch direction of ‘Internet finance’.

But this branch line direction.

Also due to the early layout of the 'Yu Hang Series' and the market's continued speculation on the concept stocks held by the entire 'Yu Hang Series', the valuation level of this branch field and the corresponding core concept stocks have long been out of the so-called underestimation stage. Although in the medium and long term in the future, the expectations for this branch are still good.

However, in terms of the overall valuation level, the cost performance of this branch is significantly weaker than the main lines of the current market centered on "infrastructure" and "military industry".

Also, the overall circulation volume of this branch line is not large.

It is simply impossible to sustain the accumulation of funds in the core main lines of the market such as 'infrastructure' and 'military industry'.

in other words……

The main financial groups on and off the market have been focusing on the main lines of 'infrastructure' and 'military industry' industries, as well as the concepts of 'Eurasian Economic Belt', 'New Era Road, Maritime Silk Road', and 'Reform and Reorganization of Central and State-owned Enterprises' Hyping and selling the main theme is also a helpless move.

After all, other main directions are really unable to gather the same hype and investment confidence.

The market space can never be opened. "

"Your analysis of the direction of 'big finance' is not bad." Xu Zhongji nodded slightly, responded, and then continued, "But you ignored a very important factor, which is the current monetary liquidity at the macro level. , as well as macro monetary policy, there is actually a probability of a change.

As long as the macro monetary policy changes, it will change from the previous tight monetary policy to a monetary loosening or even a flood of money again.

Then, the ecology of the banking industry will completely change.

At the same time, the insurance industry is closely related to changes in the financial trading market.

Coupled with the continued hot market changes and the expected continued growth of the ‘bull market’, fundamental changes in the securities industry are actually to be expected.

In this way... the fundamental situation of the entire main line of 'big finance' may be about to reverse. "

"A shift in macro monetary policy?" He Hong heard what Xu Zhongji pointed out as a key point that affects the main line expectations of 'big finance'. He pondered for a while and said, "Mr. Xu expects that the central bank will further release money in the short to medium term. Liquidity, in the form of lower interest rates, directly stimulates the macroeconomy and financial markets?”

Xu Zhongji smiled and said: "I think it is possible. After all, the wind direction has changed in the two consecutive Fed interest rate meetings. The central bank has obviously more cards. In addition, with the economic growth, the market has increased sharply. Financing needs, in order to stimulate the economy more and put the economy on the path of recovery faster, it is completely necessary to lower market interest rates.”

"If the central bank re-enters the easing strategy in terms of monetary policy, then the 'big financial' line... future expectations may indeed be reversed." He Hong thought for a long time and responded, "Mr. Xu still has a long-term vision. , I didn’t expect this at all.

If the expectations of the 'big finance' line completely change and the market's 'bull market' expectations become stronger and stronger.

Then take the volume of circulation in the "Big Finance" line and ample liquidity on the market.

It is indeed possible to perfectly undertake the current market hot main lines of "infrastructure" and "military industry", and complete the high-low switching market trend of the core main lines.

that is……"

He Hong paused for a while and then said: "In the current market trend, everyone has little confidence in the 'big finance' line, and has always been worried, unless everyone sees the central bank lowering interest rates, or It is said that the Shanghai Stock Exchange Index has completely broken through the 3,000-point mark, and the expectations of a bull market have become clear.

Otherwise, the line of big finance.

I'm afraid it's still difficult to gather market investment sentiment and speculation sentiment, open up a sustained market space, and attract continued main capital inflows!

It is said that one step ahead of the market is a legend, and two steps ahead of the market is a martyr.

At present, we can only say that the main line of the market, 'big finance', has the basic logic to become the core main line of the market, and has a certain probability to become the next core main line investment direction to succeed the current market hot core main lines such as 'infrastructure' and 'military industry' , but it is not certain that the line of 'big finance' will definitely be able to come out!

To sum up...

In fact, the future expectations of the 'technological growth' line are also good.

The performance of many core stocks has not kept up, and the internal chip structure has not been adjusted. As a result, the market has not been able to form a synergy in this direction.

But compared with the explosive potential and probability of the 'big finance' line, the 'technological growth' line is still not weak at all.

If we act in advance and shift our positions in the direction of ‘big finance’.

After that, the market formed a consistent expectation and a consistent force on the line of "technological growth", so we...were quite passive. "

"Well, your worry is also reasonable." Xu Zhongji said with a smile, "There is no rush to adjust the position in advance. What we should do now is to carefully observe the changes in the market and see where the funds withdrawn from the core main lines of "infrastructure" and "military industry" will converge in the next step of the market. At the same time, we must also pay attention to the movement of the main funds of the "Yuhang system" at this stage.

The funds of the "Yuhang system"...

As the main funds of all parties in the market, it is recognized as the smartest main funds in the market.

When we can all perceive that the core main lines of "infrastructure" and "military industry" need to be adjusted to resolve the accumulated excessive profit-taking, and when there are changes in the main line of the market, I believe that the other party cannot fail to notice it. I just don't know whether the other party's main line of the market's next main line changes, the high-low switching of this "low-level" main line, is biased towards the "big finance" or "technological growth" field, or other "big consumption" fields?

But no matter which main line he prefers, with the "Yuhang system" with a capital volume of tens of billions or hundreds of billions.

It is absolutely difficult for him to complete the position adjustment plan quietly in the market.

With such a large amount of funds, if you want to adjust the position on a large scale, you must show certain traces in the market.

What we have to do now is to keep an eye on the movement of this capital on the market to capture the other party's buying and selling trends and suspected traces of position adjustment.

After all, put aside the influence of market news and macro aspects.

The direction of the repositioning and the main direction of the funds of the 'Yuhang system' are also very strong and important for the intensification of market sentiment and investment confidence.

Wherever this main force of funds is repositioned, it is very likely to form the direction of the next main line switching. "

"Yes!" He Hong nodded and smiled, "I agree. At this time, we are waiting for further certainty in the market. As long as certainty appears, whether it is the short-term peak of 'infrastructure' and 'military industry', or other low-level main lines condense a continuous money-making effect and popularity, then we can make corresponding investment strategy changes. "

While the two were analyzing the market and discussing the change of investment strategy...

Unconsciously, the market time had come to around 5:30 pm. The Dragon and Tiger List of the two cities was announced. It was seen that the hot money group was still quite active. Although the index did not rise much today, the market's money-making effect was quite strong, and there were 48 stocks on the list.

Moreover, on the entire Dragon and Tiger List.

The total amount of buying and selling funds still showed a trend of large net inflows.

This proves that the amount of buying funds undertaken by the market is still greater than the amount of selling funds as a whole.

Of course, through the Dragon and Tiger List data, it can also be seen that many popular stocks in the core main line areas of "infrastructure" and "military industry" have already had heavyweight institutional seats on the selling seats. This shows that the profit-making funds focused on these core main line areas have indeed had the desire to reduce their positions to take profits and stop profits under the influence of the sharp decline in the external market.